Completions Lag Permitting

Single Family RNC Recovery through 2024

Throughout the Southeast, we’ve seen a rise from the bottom in single-family permitting, which began around May 2023. However, as we move through the summer of 2024, this upward trend seems to be hitting a wall.

What does this mean for the rest of 2024? Well, to answer that, we need to examine the data from the past several months. HVAC systems are among the last installations in new home construction, making the actual completion of permitted units more significant than the permit numbers themselves.

HARDI estimates that single units are completed in eight months. By taking the total permits in the Southeast (blue line) and shifting it forward by about eight months to estimate completions (orange line), we can see that the recovery in new construction wasn't felt until Q2 of this year. For the remainder of the year, completions are expected to rise by another 10% from current levels across the Southeast.

Individual state single-family permitting levels are available on our website at https://data.shupecarboni.com

Joseph Carboni
Marketing, Operations & Technology Manager
Shupe Carboni & Associates